The Greek Star

As the new government publishes its political road map, even the first mile is full of potholes.

New Democracy, PASOK and the Democratic Left agree to form Greece's most important government in decades.

After three days of hard deliberation between center-right New Democracy, center-left PASOK and the leftist Democratic Left, a new government has been formed. The new government will be tested almost immediately as, in the weeks to come, it will have to work out a new deal with the Troika but at the same time show that it is keeping its word on fiscal measures, privatization and expenditure cuts.

 There are a total of no fewer than thirty-nine ministers, alternate ministers and deputy ministers in the new coalition government. Twenty-six were sworn in for the first time while thirteen have had previous experience in a ministerial position. The agreed 'convergence program' will soon be published, forming the basis for deliberation between the new government's National Negotiation Team and the Troika.

There has been a reshuffling of the Ministries themselves as the Ministries of Education, Culture and Athletics as well as the Ministries of Development and Infrastructure have merged. Three new Ministries have been created – or rather, reinstated. They are the Ministries of Tourism, Maritime Affairs and Macedonia-Thrace.
 
The new coalition government is, for the most part, a center-right New Democracy government with a sprinkling of members from PASOK and the Democratic Left. New Democracy ministers include:

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dimitris Avramopoulos

Minister of Defense, Panos Panagiotopoulos

Minister of the Interior, Evripidis Stylianidis

Minister of Tourism, Olga Kefalogianni

Minister of Health, Andreas Lykourentzos

Minister of Citizen Protection, Nikos Dendias

Minister of Development and Infrastructure, Kostis Hatzidakis

Minister of Education, Culture and Athletics, Konstantinos Arvanitopoulos

Minister of Labour, Giannis Broutsis

Minister of Macedonia Thrace, Theodoros Karaoglou

Minister of Maritime Affairs, Kostas Mousouroulis

 Five PASOK choices from both inside and outside of parliament are to be found in the new government. They are:

The Minister of the Environment, Evangelos Livieratos,

The Minister of Agriculture, Athanasios Tsaftaris.

Deputy Foreign Affairs, Minister Dimitris Kourkoulas

 Deputy Defense Minister, Dimitris Elefsiniotis

Deputy Maritime Affairs Minister, George Vernicos

 

The Democratic Left is taking part with four members - two Ministers and two Deputy Ministers. They are:

 

·      The Minister of Justice, Antonis Roupakiotis

·      The Minister of Administrational Reform, Antonis Maniatakis

·      Deputy Minister of Education, Theodora Papatheodorou

·      Deputy Minister of Health, Fotini Skopouli

 Regarding the all-important Ministry of Finance, it is being headed by a PASOK choice - the Chairman of the National Bank of Greece, Vasilis Rapanos. At his side are Deputy Ministers Christos Staikouras (ND) and George Mavragianis (non-parliamentarian).

 Dimitris Stamatis, a close aide of ND president and now Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has been appointed as a Minister without Portfolio, while Simos Kedikoglou (ND) is the new Government Spokesman. Vaggelis Meimarakis (ND) will be proposed for speaker of parliament.

 The established media in Greece is skeptical concerning the new government. The Left-wing pro-SYRIZA Avgi newspaper of course doubts that this “sum of nationalists and 'Memorandumists'” can prevent a “national decline”. It also casts doubt on the new governments' ability to bring Greece back on equal terms within the Eurozone, to proceed with measures that will ease the needy, and to govern ethically.

 The center-left Vima newspaper explains the importance for a concise convergence program with no 'grey zones' that may hinder the new governments' coherence and bargaining ability.

 The center-left Ta Nea in its main article expressed relief that a new government was formed in only four days and that it is characterized by a spirit of cooperation. It wonders though what the level of participation for Democratic Left president Kouvelis and PASOK president Venizelos will be. It also wonders how the National Negotiation Team will be created and organized, as well as how the three parliamentary caucuses will be called to work together.

 The conservative and pro-government Eleftheros Typos is optimistic, with todays front page article outlining the “First Battle” which the new coalition government will be called to fight. This will include a freeze on lower wages, public sector reform and a lower VAT to stimulate the economy.

 On the other hand, the also conservative Kathimerini newspaper isn't mincing any words. It states in its main article that the new Samaras government should not let people down. It calls on the new government to prevent itself from acquiring the odor of “old-school and petty political compromises and balances”. It points out that the Greek people want a government that will not cave in to pressure “from party mechanisms that attempt to control a collapsing government of a bankrupt country”. Later in the day, two top columnists expressed marked skepticism concerning the new coalition's ability to learn from the mistakes of the past and to rid itself from internal political pressures.

 It seems that few people are giving the new coalition the benefit of the doubt. Gone are the days when newly formed governments were given a period of adjustment during which they were exempt from criticism by friends and foes alike. The new Greek 'coalition of the willing' will now have to batten down the hatches, lower the mizzenmast and sail Greece out of the perfect storm. They will have to succeed— failure in not an option.

 

New Democracy wins in close race—Samaras works to form a coalition government within three days. 

Round two of the Greek elections see most political parties talking more sense.

The results of the May 6th elections unleashed a torrent of voices and opinions that diffused any initial attempt at solving the political crisis. A gut wrenching month later the differences remain – but with a glimmer of hope. There has been a change in rhetoric and signs from politicians that a second electoral crisis will be averted.

The Communist Party (KKE)
Love it or loathe it, you have to hand it to the KKE - it has always been focused on its own particular solution concerning the country's problems and has never had to shift from its position. What it said five minutes ago, it said five decades ago as well. But even with the crisis in full swing, the KKE's rhetoric continues to be out of touch with the public while SYRIZA's miraculous rebirth has created an ever widening rift between the two leftist parties. After the May 6th elections, the KKE has taken advantage of the fact that much of the traditional PASOK voter base as well as some PASOK party members, have moved to support SYRIZA. The KKE has begun labeling SYRIZA as a new PASOK – just a another Eurocentric and systemic political party that will take PASOK's place in the new bipolar political climate, disappointing voters in the process. Although being the recipient of co-governance invitations from both SYRIZA and the Democratic Left, the KKE chooses to follow down its own lonely path.

 New Democracy
New Democracy president Antonis Samaras has asked for public support of a Eurocentric center-right that will keep the left (meaning SYRIZA) from leading Greece out of the EU. He calls SYRIZA a “political party of the Drachma”  and urges voters to choose a European path and thus avert a national catastrophe. Samaras' initial anti-memorandum rhetoric and subsequent decision to support the second memorandum, spawned the breakaway Independent Greeks which has taken away a huge chunk of New Democracy supporters. Though Samaras went out of his way to explain that the reversal of policy was for the good of the country, the second Memorandum has emphasized wage cuts and internal devaluation – and this has not registered well at all with the Greeks. Samaras has maintained the need for more economic development measures, has presented a list of 18 points that he will renegotiate and criticizes the lack of hard numbers in SYRIZA's governance program, calling it “comic math”. Samaras is optimistic that the Spanish Bank bailout can be used as a framework for further Greek renegotiation with the EU/IMF.

SYRIZA 
SYRIZA, a very progressive left-wing party, is getting a dose of reality as its rhetoric and policy must now cater to a wider audience while its decisions will have a European, even global impact. SYRIZA President Alexis Tsipras has has come out with an increasing number of statements in support of the EU and the Euro. Last weekend he said in an interview in the left-wing Avgi newspaper that “a renegotiation of the memorandum” is the most beneficial strategy for both Greece and the EU. In the same interview he stated that a Greek default and the loss of European cohesion is in no-ones interest. Tsipras also wrote an Op-Ed to the Financial Times titled “I will keep Greece in the eurozone”. While Tsipras has toned down his rhetoric he is still all anti-establishment and popular for that reason. Many radical opinions though still come from top level brass in SYRIZA – statements like the ones from Panagiotis Lafazanis a few months ago who  openly called for a unilateral nullification of the Memorandum and a return to the drachma. Keeping in mind that SYRIZA is a coalition of leftist parties, it may find itself having to deal with its own political identity along with the plethora of National and European issues.

PASOK
PASOK President Venizelos circulated an eight point plan for cooperation between political leaders (except for the anti-European KKE and far-right Golden Dawn). He is advocating the creation of a government of national co-responsibility and sees PASOK as a catalyst and guaranteer of cooperation. However, in the eyes of the public, the previously all-powerful PASOK is still not believable as a born again, cooperative socialist movement. For starters, Venizelos is seen by the public as an old establishment ex-Fin Min who worked feverishly to justify both Memorandums. If PASOK is to reclaim its previous dynamic, it must break from the past and change radically – something which Venizelos aims to do immediately following the national elections.

Democratic Left
Democratic Left president, Fotis Kouvelis, was Tsipras' challenger for the SYRIZA (then called Synaspismos) presidency about four and a half years ago. In June 2010, Kouvelis and a number of its members left to form their own, less hard-line, Democratic Left party. In the first elections, the Democratic Left had a very difficult choice to make. Choice number one was to agree to work with establishment PASOK/New Democracy in a coalition government and be the only leftist non-establishment party to agree on tough measures. Choice number two was also hard – to not accept co-governance and stand its ideological ground by calling for a broader progressive coalition in which SYRIZA would play a role. Though it chose the latter, SYRIZA and the Democratic Left have since traded punches with Kouvelis accusing SYRIZA of talking in many tongues on basic policy issues and Tsipras accusing Kouvelis of aligning with the establishment. Kouvelis though has stated that the country “cannot bear a third election”  and he stands by his position for the formation of a broader progressive coalition.

Independent Greeks
In a last press conference, Independent Greeks president Panos Kammenos made it clear that he will not work with New Democracy, PASOK, the KKE or Golden Dawn in a coalition government.  Kammenos stated though that he is open to cooperating with SYRIZA and other parties under certain conditions. While the Independent Greeks mirror SYRIZA's left-wing economic rhetoric, they advocate tough immigration and foreign policies that are in stark contrast to SYRIZA's internationalism and it remains to be seen how their differences will be bridged. Kammenos also rejects what he feels is Samaras' false “Europe vs. Drachma” dilemma and maintains that he will nullify the Memorandum without leaving the Eurozone.

Golden Dawn
It would be a mistake to say that the Golden Dawn is a one-time electoral fluke. The Greek political sphere will have to put up with the Golden Dawn for as long as a large number of Greeks (450,000 in the May 6th elections) feel its the only way they can express their pent up anger. The Golden Dawn has gotten the press coverage alloted to it by law so its militant populism and a tendency for violent behavior has been well documented. While denouncing the Golden Dawn every chance they get, the political establishment must now learn to deal with a new phenomenon that they themselves in part created and which, unfortunately, seems to be supported by a rather large portion of the Greek electorate.

 Last minute 'secret polls' are always circulating in the offices of major parties and, in case some readers got wind of it, one supposedly found its way out. Not only does Greek law make it illegal to publish the results of polls two weeks before the elections, but Greek polls have been quite wrong before. Also, so many unofficial and downright wrong numbers have been published by Greek political blogs in the past, so they are really not worth taking notice. One thing everyone agrees with is the importance of capturing the hearts and minds of the undecided voter as, with SYRIZA and New Democracy running neck and neck, its they who will affect the election outcome.

 With so much at stake, Greek parties are running their hardest campaigns yet—but underneath the rhetoric and differences, the future members of the coalition share a common understanding about how grave the situation is. Its highly unlikely that there will be a repeat of May 6th and a government will be formed by hook or by crook, in order to get Greece walking proud on a European path to recovery.

 

While no one can yet predict the winner of the June 17th elections, public sentiment on a number of issues has solidified.

 Its two weeks until the elections and according to four polls published last weekend, center-right New Democracy (ND) had a lead ranging from 1.1% to 5.7% over the left wing SY.RI.ZA party. With these percentages, a parliamentary majority will once again not be reached, even with the extra 50 seat 'bonus' that, in accordance with Greek electoral law, is awarded to the winner of the elections.

This means that third-place PASOK will have no other choice but to act as a swing party and support the winner on June 17th. Meanwhile, political polarization has given ND and SY.RI.ZA larger percentages, kept center-left PASOK stuck in third place and has caused most of the smaller parties to shrink, as voters are easing into a new Greek bi-polar political sphere.

New polls are coming out constantly and MRB's last two polls are a great source of insight concerning the new Greek political equilibrium and the psychology of Greek voters. The newer poll, published last weekend by MRB, shows that a whopping 95% of Greeks polled are pessimistic about the country's future. 38% believe Greece may possibly exit the Eurozone while 55% fear that Greece is close to default.

 The vast majority of those questioned by MRB, 87.8% to be exact, want Greece to stay within the Eurozone - but when forced to choose between austerity and an exit from the Eurozone, Greeks are divided as to how to proceed. Given no other choice, 41.7% would accept the current Memorandum if it kept Greece in the Eurozone. On the other hand, a rather respectable 47.8% would not want to remain in the Eurozone under these conditions.

 Public sentiment concerning the Memorandum is summed up by the 65.5% that want the next government to bargain hard and do away with austerity policies – another 29.3% want the Memorandum nullified. Greeks though have come to understand that they too will have to make concessions during the bargaining process. In MRB's older poll, 52.2% of those questioned are ready to make further personal sacrifices in order for the country to remain in the Euro while only 28.8% would like to see a vastly different economic model that could lead to the adoption of a new national currency and an uncertain future.

 The election results of May 6th have clearly placed pressure on Greece's political leaders to figure things out for themselves due to the lack of a clear political mandate, in the form of a majority government. Yet, the inability to form a government doesn't seem to have had an impact on the way Greeks vote. According to the older MRB poll, 87.1% of those polled will not change their May 6th vote. The Greek people though are fed up with political jousting as 72.5% want the next elections to produce a coalition government by hook or by crook.

The newer MRB poll shows 34.2% support for a broader coalition government while there is also 17.8% support for a left-wing coalition government. In the past, the idea has been thrown around concerning the establishment of a government of technocrats. In MRB's older poll though, only 28.7% prefer a technocrat-led government while 51.6% prefer a coalition of political members. This further highlights the need for a broad political consensus among parties that believe Greece must, by all means, stay in the Eurozone.

For the most part, approval ratings for Greek political leaders are low, as is the belief that any party can successfully deal with the issues currently plaguing Greece - the numbers vary from poll to poll. Usually, the largest percentages are attributed to “None” - case and point, the newest MRB poll in which 35.5% of those asked believe that no current political party is up to the task of running the country, while 22.9% believe no political leader is qualified to be Prime Minister.SY.RI.ZA though has the upper hand as 24.4% of those polled believe it can successfully change the terms of the Memorandum with ND coming in second at 17.7% and PASOK a distant third at 8.7%.

 Meanwhile, VPRC's new poll which came out this week has caused a stir – according to VPRC, its SY.RI.ZA that now leads with 30% while ND trails with 26.5%. The combination of close percentages and different methodologies for each polling company shows how fluid the situation is and no one can really predict the outcome. Interesting statistics from VPRC's poll include a possible higher voter turnout – it has increased from 67% in January to 89% now. Voter confidence also seems to be increasing as people are more sure about who they will vote for – confidence was at 45% exactly a month ago and has since then risen to 66%.

 I'll be keeping you updated with more numbers from the final batch of polls as Greek law prohibits poll results from being published in the last two weeks before the elections!